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乳酸脱氢酶联合BISAP评分预测急性胰腺炎并发持续器官损害的价值
作者:李玉芳  
单位:苏州大学附属第一医院
关键词:急性胰腺炎 Ranson评分 BISAP评分 乳酸脱氢酶 持续器官损害 
分类号:
出版年·卷·期(页码):2015·43·第四期(459-462)
摘要:

目的 通过与Ranson评分、BISAP评分比较,探讨乳酸脱氢酶(LDH)联合BISAP评分对急性胰腺炎(AP)预后的预测价值。方法 回顾分析2011年12月到2012年8月收治的200例患者,记录资料包括48 h Ranson评分、24 h BISAP评分及24h内血清LDH值。对BISAP评分及LDH两个变量进行二分类Logistic回归分析,建立回归模型,得出模型预测概率。应用ROC曲线下面积(AUC)检验三种评分数据对AP持续器官损害的预测价值。结果 在200例患者中有持续时间≥ 48 h的器官损害31例(15.5%)。Ranson、BISAP及LDH联合BISAP三种评分在预测持续器官损害时AUC分别为:0.931(95%CI0.881-0.962),0.903(95%CI0.853-0.940),0.928(95%CI0.883-0.960)。这两种预后指标中,LDH联合BISAP评分与Ranson评分比较差异无统计学意义(P=0.926),与BISAP评分比较差异有统计学意义(P=0.035)。结论 LDH联合BISAP评分对AP发生持续器官损害的预测能力明显优于BISAP评分,较Ranson评分预测能力差异无显著性,且比其更简便、及时、经济适用,临床应用价值大。

Objective To probe the value of lactate dehydrogenase combined with BISAP scoring system in predicting the acute pancreatitis complicated by persistent organ damage by means of comparing with Ranson and BISAP scoring system. Methods A total of 200 consecutive patients, who were admitted into the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from December ,2011 to August,2012, were studied retrospectively. 24 hours (BISAP score), 48 hours (Ranson scores)and serum lactate dehydrogenase recorded after admission. Using LDH and BISAP scoring as concomitant variables , we established the prediction model by binary logistic regression analysis, then got the prediction probability(pre).We examined the value of three kinds of scoring systems in predicting persistent organ damage by using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves(AUC). Results Among these 200 patients,there were 31cases(15.5%)occur persistent organ damage. The AUC of Ranson、BISAP and LDH combine with BISAP scoring on predicting persistent organ damage were 0.931(95%CI0.881-0.962), 0.903(95%CI0.853-0.940), 0.928(95%CI0.883-0.960) respectively. he difference, between LDH combined with BISAP scoring and Ranson scoring was not significant(P=0.926), Thowever,LDH combined with BISAP displayed significant advantages over BISAP alone(P=0.035). Conclusion LDH combined with BISAP scoring was better more than BISAP scoring in predicting persistent organ damage of AP, and also the difference was not statistically significant compared with Ranson scoring. LDH combined with BISAP scoring is a simple,prompt,economical,and ideal prognosis scoring system in clinical practice.

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