Objective: To establish the models of GM(1, 1) and auto-regressive prediction used topredict medical care ratios in China and to compare the predictive effect among them, so as to provide the basis for grasping variation tendency of medical care ratios in China. Methods: The data on the medical care ratios from 1980 to 2014 in China were collected, SAS9.3 and EViews8.0 were employed to fit corresponding models, then the medical care ratios from 2015 to 2025 in China were predicted by trend extrapolation model-establishing. Results: The MRD, MSE, RMSE and MAE fitted and predicted by auto-regressive model were 2.3378, 0.0004, 0.0190, 0.0144 and 2.7468, 0.0007, 0.0268, 0.0268, respectively. The MRD, MSE, RMSE and MAE fitted and predicted by GM(1, 1) model were 4.2031, 0.0012, 0.0343, 0.0264 and 9.6534, 0.0090, 0.0949, 0.0943, respectively. Afterwards the auto-regressive model was used to forecast the medical care ratio from 2015 to 2025 in China. Conclusion: Auto-regressive model is a forecasting model with higher accuracy and its forecasting effect is reliable; Since 2014 the medical care ratio begins to be equal and it is in a rising trend. |