2004—2024年嘉兴市猩红热流行特征分析-现代医学

2004—2024年嘉兴市猩红热流行特征分析

作者：李睿¹ 王远航¹ 查亦薇¹ 刘杨¹ 赵啸宇¹ 唐晓倩² 章梦昱³ 富小飞¹

单位：1. 嘉兴市疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制科, 浙江嘉兴 314050;
2. 海盐县疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制科, 浙江海盐 314300;
3. 嘉善县疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制科, 浙江嘉善 314100

分类号：R516.6

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·53·第十二期（1890-1894）

摘要：

目的：了解2004—2024年嘉兴市猩红热流行特征，为制定猩红热防控措施提供依据。方法：通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病监测报告管理系统，收集2004—2024年嘉兴市猩红热病例资料。采用描述流行病学方法分析2004—2024年嘉兴市猩红热病例的人群、时间和地区分布特征；采用Joinpoint 5.0.2软件对猩红热发病数据进行趋势分析，计算年度变化百分比(APC)；采用SaTScan 10.1.3软件进行时空扫描分析。结果：2004—2024年嘉兴市共报告猩红热病例3 294例，年均报告发病率为3.43/10万；2004—2017年发病率呈上升趋势(APC=24.167%，P<0.001)，2017—2024年呈下降趋势(APC=-32.200%，P<0.001)。发病年龄3～<9岁占比最高(2 758例，83.73%)；以幼托儿童(1 571例，47.69%)为主。2004—2024年各月嘉兴市均有猩红热病例报告，12月达到发病高峰(520例，15.79%)。海盐县(21.11/10万)、海宁市(2.34/10万)、嘉善县(2.19/10万)发病率居前3位。时空扫描结果显示，2004—2024年嘉兴市猩红热Ⅰ类聚集区以澉浦镇为中心，覆盖海盐县的4个乡镇(街道)，聚集时间为2015年2月至2019年1月(P<0.001)。结论：2004—2024年嘉兴市猩红热发病率整体呈先上升后下降趋势，冬季和春季为高发期，多发于儿童群体中，存在一定的时空聚集性。建议加强重点人群、高发季节以及大型城市周边和重点聚集地区猩红热的监测工作，完善猩红热防控策略。

Objective: The aim of this study was to understand the epidemiological characteristics of scarlet fever in Jiaxing City from 2004 to 2024, and to provide the basis for the prevention and control of scarlet fever. Methods: The data of scarlet fever cases in Jiaxing City from 2004 to 2024 were collected through the infectious disease monitoring and reporting management system of China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the population, spatialtemporal distribution characteristics of scarlet fever cases in Jiaxing City from 2004 to 2024. The Joinpoint 5.0.2 software was used to conduct trend analysis on the scarlet fever incidence data and calculate the annual percentage change(APC). The SaTScan 10.1.3 software was used for spatiotemporal scanning analysis. Results: From 2004 to 2024, a total of 3 294 cases of scarlet fever were reported in Jiaxing City, with an average annual reported incidence rate of 3.43/100,000. The incidence rate showed an upward trend from 2004 to 2017(APC=24.167%, P<0.001) and a downward trend from 2017 to 2024(APC=-32.200%, P<0.001). The age group of 3 to<9 years old had the highest proportion of cases(2 758 cases, 83.73%), and preschool children were the main affected group(1 571 cases, 47.69%). Scarlet fever cases were reported in Jiaxing City every month from 2004 to 2024, with the peak incidence in December(520 cases, 15.79%). The incidence rates in Haiyan County(21.11/100 000), Haining City(2.34/100 000), and Jiashan County(2.19/100 000) ranked the top three. The spatiotemporal scanning results indicated that the first-class aggregation area of scarlet fever in Jiaxing City from 2004 to 2024 was centered on Ganpu Town, covering four towns(sub-districts) in Haiyan County, with the aggregation period from February 2015 to January 2019(P<0.001). Conclusion: The incidence rate of scarlet fever in Jiaxing City from 2004 to 2024 exhibited an overall trend of initial increase followed by a decline, with peak incidence observed during winter and spring seasons. The disease predominantly affected children and demonstrated notable spatiotemporal clustering. It is recommended to strengthen the surveillance of scarlet fever in key populations, high incidence seasons, and surrounding areas of large cities and key areas of concentration, and to improve the prevention and control strategies of scarlet fever.

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