1990—2021年中国归因于饮酒的脑卒中疾病负担分析及预测-现代医学

1990—2021年中国归因于饮酒的脑卒中疾病负担分析及预测

单位：1. 首都医科大学附属北京安贞医院南充医院/南充市中心医院病案统计科, 四川南充 637000;
2. 大连金普新区疾病预防控制中心急传防制部, 辽宁大连 116000

分类号：R743.3

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2026·54·第三期（413-419）

摘要：

目的：分析1990—2021年中国归因于饮酒的脑卒中疾病负担变化趋势，并对未来变化情况进行预测。方法：基于2021年全球疾病负担数据库，采用年龄标化死亡率和年龄标化伤残调整寿命年(DALY)率描述疾病负担；利用Joinpoint回归模型分析1990—2021年中国归因于饮酒所致脑卒中疾病负担的时间变化趋势；采用自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)预测未来十年的变化情况。结果：1990—2021年中国归因于饮酒的脑卒中标化死亡率和标化DALY率呈下降趋势，AAPC分别为-1.08%和-1.19%(P<0.05)，男性归因疾病负担高于女性，70岁以上年龄组归因疾病负担更严重。ARIMA预测模型显示，2022—2031年中国归因于饮酒的脑卒中标化死亡率和标化DALY率均呈下降趋势，2031年可能分别降至7.01/10万和149.30/10万。结论：1990—2021年中国归因于饮酒的脑卒中疾病负担呈下降趋势，且未来10年仍将持续下降。男性和老年人群是饮酒所致脑卒中的高风险人群，建议针对重点人群采取干预措施，以减轻饮酒所致脑卒中的疾病负担。

Objective: Analyze the trend of changes in the stroke burdenattributable to alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2021 and predict future changes.Methods: Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease(GBD) database, age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year(DALY) rate were used to describe the disease burden. The Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the temporal trend of the disease burden of stroke attributable to alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2021. The autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model was used to predict changes over the next decade.Results: From 1990 to 2021, the standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate of stroke attributed to alcohol consumption in China showed a downward trend, with AAPC values of -1.08% and -1.19%, respectively(P<0.05). The disease burden attributed to alcohol consumption was higher in males than in females, and more severe in the age group over 70 years old. The ARIMA prediction model indicated that both the standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate of stroke attributed to alcohol consumption in China would continue to decline from 2022 to 2031, potentially reaching 7.01 per 100 000 and 149.30 per 100 000, respectively, in 2031. Conclusion: From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of stroke attributable to alcohol consumption in China has shown a downward trend and is expected to continue decreasing in the next decade. Males and elderly populations are at high risk of stroke caused by alcohol consumption. Targeted interventions for these key populations are warranted to reduce the disease burden.

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