1990—2021年中国非黑色素瘤皮肤癌的发病、死亡趋势及疾病负担分析-现代医学

1990—2021年中国非黑色素瘤皮肤癌的发病、死亡趋势及疾病负担分析

单位：广州中医药大学公共卫生与管理学院, 广东广州 510006

分类号：R739.5

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2026·54·第五期（769-778）

摘要：

目的：分析1990—2021年中国非黑色素瘤皮肤癌(NMSC)流行特征和疾病负担变化趋势，为制定防治策略提供参考。方法：基于全球疾病负担研究(GBD)数据库，提取1990—2021年中国NMSC的标化发病率、标化死亡率、早死寿命损失年(YLL)率、伤残寿命损失年(YLD)率及伤残调整寿命年(DALY)率等数据。采用Joinpiont回归模型计算年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)，分析疾病负担的时间趋势。结果：1990—2021年，中国NMSC的多项指标呈现显著上升趋势：标化发病率(ASIR)从3.36/10万上升至55.66/10万(增幅约1 556.54%)，标化死亡率(SMR)从0.44/10万上升至1.17/10万(增幅约165.90%)；标化YLD率从0.077 1/10万上升至0.580 7/10万(增幅约653.17%)；标化YLL率从11.853 9/10万上升至24.511 7/10万(增幅约106.78%)；标化DALY率从11.909 2/10万上升至25.362 3/10万(增幅约112.96%)。结论：中国NMSC的发病及死亡人数增长迅速，疾病负担逐年加重，且与年龄呈正相关，老龄群体负担尤为突出。数据分析显示，该病呈现老龄化趋势，尤其在80~84岁及85~89岁年龄组中发病率持续攀升。

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and trends in the disease burden of non-melanoma skin cancer(NMSC) in China from 1990 to 2021,and to provide references for formulating prevention and control strategies. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Disease(GBD) database, data on the age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized mortality rate, years of life lost due to premature mortality(YLL) rate, years lived with disability(YLD) rate, and disability-adjusted life years(DALY) rate of NMSC in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the annual percentage change(APC) and average annual percentage change(AAPC) to analyze temporal trends in disease burden. Results: From 1990 to 2021, multiple indicators of NMSC in China showed a significant upward trend: the standardized incidence rate increased from 3.36/100 000 to 55.66/100 000(an increase of approximately 1 556.54%), the standardized mortality rate increased from 0.44/100 000 to 1.17/100 000(an increase of approximately 165.90%); the standardized YLD rate increased from 0.077 1/100 000 to 0.580 7/100 000(an increase of approximately 653.17%); the standardized YLL rate increased from 11.853 9/100 000 to 24.511 7/100 000(an increase of approximately 106.78%); the standardized DALY rate increased from 11.909 2/100 000 to 25.362 3/100 000(an increase of approximately 112.96%). Conclusion: The incidence and mortality of NMSL in China have increased rapidly, with a continuously growing diease burden that shows a positive correlation with age, especially in the elderly population. Data analysis shows that this disease is showing an aging trend, with a continuous increase in the incidence rate in the age groups of 80-84 and 85-89 years old.

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